Skip to content
SignalPowered bySign inBack to Digirockstars
All briefs

Daily brief

Market · Mon 27 Jul · 3 min read

Bitcoin OG selling at four-year low, macro still in charge

This brief is supported by

WOMO (opens in a new tab)More about them at the end of the brief

What happened

Bitcoin held just under $65,000 on Friday despite Brent crude hitting $97.66, its highest since May, driven by the ongoing Iran conflict. Traditional risk assets stayed muted. Separately, Galaxy Research data shows dormant Bitcoin movement fell to its lowest level since Q3 2022, meaning long-term holders (often called OGs) have largely stopped selling after a prolonged profit-taking cycle in the first half of the year.

Why it matters

Sources: Cointelegraph

Related briefs

  1. Bitcoin ETF streak snaps; macro volatility returnsUS spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a $225 million outflow after a seven-session, nearly $1 billion inflow streak, against a backdrop of rising bond yields and Iran-driven oil price spikes pushing Bitcoin below $65,000, confirms that macro stress events can reverse institutional flows quickly and without warning. For Philippine operators running crypto cashiers, this week is a live demonstration of the deposit valuation risk that comes with holding any crypto exposure between receipt and conversion. Conversion-on-receipt policies need to be enforced before every major macro event, and treasury teams should be watching Friday's Fed signals as closely as BTC spot prices.Market
  2. August BTC pullback bets rise; cashier ops on alertThe dominant trade in crypto markets right now is protection against Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in August, which tells you where informed market participants see the near-term risk distribution. For Philippine operators running crypto cashiers, this is not a directional call to act on but a process reminder: if the hedging consensus is correct and Bitcoin drops toward $60K from current levels near $65K, deposit valuations and any open crypto liability move meaningfully within a single session. Conversion-on-receipt policies need to be enforced before every major US macro release this month, and the Fed calendar is the trigger list, not BTC technicals.Market
  3. Mining difficulty drop signals sustained crypto revenue weaknessBitcoin mining difficulty falling 14% from 2024's peak, with forward markets projecting it stays depressed through year-end, reflects a sector where revenue economics have genuinely deteriorated, not just paused. For Philippine operators this matters less as a mining story and more as a macro signal: sustained miner distress historically coincides with increased BTC sell pressure as operators liquidate holdings to cover costs, which is an additional downside driver on top of the bearish August positioning already dominant in derivatives markets. This is lower-urgency than the custody and cashier items above, but it reinforces the case for enforcing conversion-on-receipt rather than holding any BTC balance through an extended August.Market