Grayscale says Bitcoin cycle logic has shifted

Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, published analysis arguing that Bitcoin may have already reached its cycle low, earlier than the four-year halving model would predict. The core claim is that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class, and that US Federal Reserve policy, specifically rate decisions and the broader interest rate environment, now drives price direction more than the halving supply shock mechanism. Grayscale is not calling a definitive bottom. It is saying the conditions that historically defined the bottom (post-halving miner capitulation, prolonged bear sentiment) may no longer be the primary driver.

The four-year halving cycle has been the dominant mental model for crypto price forecasting among operators, treasury teams, and cashier risk managers for over a decade. If Grayscale's thesis holds, that model is now structurally unreliable. A few implications follow directly.