PAGCOR net income down 85%: structural crisis, not a blip

PAGCOR posted net income of PHP 1.6 billion for H1 2026, down 85.3% from PHP 10.8 billion in H1 2025. The collapse is concentrated in e-gaming: revenues from eGames, eBingo, and bingo grantees fell 41.9% to PHP 18.6 billion from PHP 32 billion in the same period last year.

Two structural drivers explain most of the damage. First, the BSP order disconnecting e-wallets from e-gaming platforms removed the primary funding rail for a large portion of the player base. That was a regulatory action with lasting effects, not a temporary market disruption. Second, a Supreme Court ruling now requires PAGCOR to remit 5% of gross income to the Philippine Sports Commission, calculated on a broader base than the previous formula. That remittance obligation does not diminish when revenues fall. It compounds pressure on net income permanently unless the ruling is reversed or legislated around.

PAGCOR's public statement attributed part of the decline to the US-Iran war's lingering effects on regional economic sentiment. That framing is present in the CEO's comments but is not supported by specific causal data in the disclosure. The structural factors above are quantifiably more significant.

Tengco noted some stabilization in Q2 but flagged rising global fuel prices as a fresh uncertainty. That comment signals PAGCOR is not projecting a sharp near-term recovery.

PAGCOR is simultaneously managing Casino Filipino privatisation, B2B accreditation enforcement, and active operator licensing conversations. A regulator with a PHP 9.2 billion net income hole in six months is under acute institutional pressure. That pressure cuts two ways.